My (Early) Predictions For 2008

Wednesday, November 7, 2007
By Cory Treffiletti

Can you believe it's already November? Where'd all the time go? It seems like just yesterday I was getting settled back in San Francisco, sitting around counting the days till the iPhone was released, and planning the way I'd ask my fiancé to marry me! Ahhh... how time flies.

Of course, now that it's November, there's no better time than the present to lay out my predictions for 2008! I know, I know... some of you might think it's a little early, but I like to be first, so that none of my predictions are too heavily influenced by what everyone else is thinking. So with that brief explanation for jumping the gun, here are some of my bold and not-so-bold predictions for 2008:

1. P2P will become an important, ad-supported vehicle for reaching consumers. The P2P market is fast trying to push forward with ad-supported models and they are being very aggressive in trying new ideas. Patience is no longer a virtue in the music business, as more people are recognizing that digital has effectively increased the opportunity for interaction directly between the artists and the consumers. This is especially important as it's not all about music in this environment now - it's about video as well. This market will mature quickly simply because there is a lot of volume, and it provides an untapped resource with detailed behavioral information. The dirty word of "P2P" will likely go away and advertisers will begin to be more enticed by this environment.

2. The maturation of mobile as an ad-supported medium is still 1-2 years away, but mobile search will increase dramatically and usher in the beginning of this stage of growth. Mobile has been promised for many years, but hasn't yet met expectations. This year saw the iPhone launch, and the game here effectively changed because of the interface and the integration of such application as Google Maps, etc. With the platform now open for developers and with Google becoming aggressive in this market, the opportunity to reach consumers here will increase. Video is still too far away to be a viable ad-supported mobile medium, but search is the killer app on phones, and advertising in this portion of the platform will dramatically increase attention toward mobile in much the same way it did on the Internet. Dollars will flow to mobile search quickly, ushering in mobile platforms as ad-supported vehicles. Which brings us to the next prediction...

3. The Google phone and version 2.0 of the iPhone (increased memory, more applications) will dominate the sales of smart phones. With the Google phone getting coverage in The New York Times, it is close to becoming a reality. Other players will launch new phones, but none will come as close to the cool factor as these two companies. 'Nuff said.

4. Standards for online video advertising will be announced... by NBC, CBS and ABC. The fact that standards will be announced is not the surprising part. The surprise is that this movement will be led by the major television networks, notoriously slow to lead the packaging of online video. Still, the networks are also the leading source of quality video content that is accessible and of interest to the mass audience! As eyeballs come from TV to the Web to see this content, and as tools emerge for the management of the syndication of video content and the associated advertising, the networks will be in a power position to manage these standards and lead the industry forward. For better or for worse, that's what I see happening.

5. Social media will develop the "killer app": an aggregate buying tool for groups. I have always said that social media is the digital extension of multi-level marketing (Amway, Mary Kay, etc.). The common element between these two models is commerce and the aggregation of consumers to purchase products (though in different ways).
I think that social media will become a VERY useful tool when social networks are used to benefit the individual user along with the group (as in business networking, etc.). I see the killer app as an aggregate commerce engine where you can gather together 10 of your friends looking to buy a flat-screen TV and buy them all in bulk at a discounted price, shipped to each separate location. It's Costco embedded in your social network, and it puts the "social graph" to a practical purpose. The logistics of this may be difficult, but I think it will be inevitable.
That leaves me to a couple of predictions related to Facebook:

· Facebook will not be bought in 2008, nor will it go public.

· The OpenSocial initiative will not hurt Facebook, but it might decrease its valuation slightly.

For my final prediction: The role of the media planner will become even more difficult, as these emerging formats become more widely used by consumers and a more viable opportunity for interaction with brands. There are lots of implications for these trends, but I'll have to hold off on that explanation for another day.

What do you think?